Other People's Money with Max Wiethe

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar.

Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com

Follow Luke Gromen on X: https://x.com/LukeGromen

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

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X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:52 Bond Selloff Explained

04:54 Debt Spiral Mechanics

08:22 Global Defense Stimulus

09:58 Real Yields Reality Check

13:20 Fed Chair Fantasy

15:34 Sponsor Break Fundrise

16:57 AI Trade Meets China

20:52 Labor Data Warning

23:02 AI Backstop Coming

26:28 No Long Bond Floor

30:44 Gold Revaluation Debate

35:27 China Gold Buying Surge

36:31 Oil Reserves And Leverage

39:19 Pain Contest with The West

43:22 Inequality and Instability

47:18 Dollar Down Yield Trap

50:03 Buy the Dip

52:12 Gold Targets and Gradualism

54:50 Bitcoin Lags Tech Risk

58:47 Warsh Fed No Good Options

01:02:55 What Breaks First?

01:05:33 Bonds Are the Biggest Bubble

Learn more about Teucrium’s Soybean ETF (SOYB) here: https://teucrium.com/soyb

Free E-book from Teucrium: https://insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs

In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with hedge fund manager Russell Clark to discuss why he believes the U.S. Treasury market is a much larger and more dangerous speculative bubble than AI. Clark details his macroeconomic outlook, arguing that a shifting political landscape focused on 7% wage growth and lower living costs will eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield up to an astonishing 10%. To stabilize affordability for younger generations, he predicts real estate will remain flat nominally while heavily declining in real terms. Clark also breaks down the massive capital expenditures in AI, viewing them as defensive strategies by legacy tech giants to protect their moats rather than mere speculation. Finally, Clark also warns about sectors reliant on low rates and the severe illiquidity and mispriced risks currently lurking within the private credit and private equity markets.

Read Russell’s Substack: https://www.russell-clark.com

Follow Russell Clark on X: https://x.com/rampagingruss

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

SOYB Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/soyb

Investing in SOYB involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity investments are subject to significant volatility.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Teucrium Soybean Fund before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fund.

This material must be proceeded or accompanied by the prospectus. The prospectus is available atteucrium.com/soyb.

Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky

04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds

08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary

14:12 Japan Leads

16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields

20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB

21:58 High Real Rates New Normal

26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise

29:09 Housing Tug of War

34:02 Politics Converge Anyway

36:03 Chips Are New Oil

38:38 Is AI a Bubble?

44:12 AI and Wage Politics

50:37 Strategic AI Spending

54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks

59:29 Private Credit Red Flags

01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links

Moritz Seibert and Moritz Heiden of Takahe Capital dive deep into the mechanics of high-octane trend-following strategies and unpack why they target 25-30% annualized volatility, bucking the institutional trend of lower volatility to capture massive outlier trades like the recent cocoa and gold runs. They explore the heated debate between dynamic position sizing and classic approaches, revealing why letting winners run is crucial for massive returns. The conversation also touches on the emerging world of perpetual futures on decentralized platforms and why keeping trading models simple often beats complex fundamental analysis.

Follow Moritz Seibert on X: https://x.com/moritzseibert

Follow Moritz Heiden on X: https://x.com/moritzheiden

Follow Takahe Capital on X: https://x.com/TakaheCapital

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:14 Do You Need Big Trends

03:21 Smooth vs Choppy Trends

05:00 Oil Curve Positioning

07:43 Model Design Not Discretion

09:24 Why Trend Funds Differ

16:02 Classic Trend Playbooks

19:04 Sizing Beats Entry

25:01 Perpetual Futures Reality

32:41 High Octane Philosophy

35:22 Letting Winners Get Huge

39:04 Why Trends End Late

41:55 Price Only vs Fundamentals

46:28 What’s Trending Now

49:57 Spreads Underperforming

52:37 When Signals Die

57:49 Simple Robust Parameters

01:00:59 Design Without Optimization

01:05:43 Diversification and Investors

01:09:32 Uniqueness and Market Mix

01:14:21 Who Buys High Vol

01:15:54 Conclusion

Sean McGould, CEO and CIO of $19 billion hedge fund manager The Lighthouse Group, joins OPM to discuss navigating today's bull market by targeting diverse sources of global alpha. The conversation focuses on Japan as a new source of alpha, spurred by the country's historic corporate governance reforms, the unwinding of cross-shareholdings, and the new NISA guidelines driving unprecedented retail investment. Additionally, McGould breaks down how the AI capital expenditure arms race is shaping global equity issuance and explains why the multi-manager "pod shop" model is the true modern successor to Wall Street's legacy proprietary trading desks.

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Japan Market Shift

01:29 Lighthouse Group

04:53 Why Hedge in Bull Runs?

10:43 Equity Issuance Signals

13:33 Capex Versus Meme Raises

16:27 AI Inside Lighthouse

18:20 Specialists vs. Generalists

19:42 AI Fuels Asia Outperformance

21:18 Japan Reforms and Nikkei

24:43 Korea Value Up Program

27:44 Fixing Incentive Imbalances

32:34 Sector Pair Trades Explained

33:56 Factor Neutrality Pitfalls

34:44 AI and Narrative Factors

41:54 Why Liquidity Means Capacity

44:34 Hidden Alpha in Regulation

50:30 Hedging Regulatory Unknowns

53:50 Peak Pod Shop Debate

57:40 Diversification and Market Liquidity

Leading IPO researcher Jay Ritter, widely known as "Mr. IPO" and the director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida's Warrington College of Business breaks down the historic 2026 public market landscape. Ritter analyzes the unprecedented potential for a wave of mega-IPOs from tech giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. He dives into the realities of staggering price-to-sales ratios, warning that while AI offers immense technological promise, eye-watering trillion-dollar valuations leave very little room for error. Ritter also cuts through the hype surrounding retail access to venture capital and private equity, explaining why extra layers of middlemen, "volatility washing," and an evaporating illiquidity premium mean average investors aren't actually missing out on a free lunch.

Professor Ritter’s IPO Data: https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:58 Meet Mr IPO

01:40 2026 is Unprecedented

02:52 Do IPOs Signal Tops

04:27 How IPO Pricing Works

05:57 SpaceX Valuation Risks

09:26 TAM Hype and Cursor

13:27 2026 Versus Past Waves

16:17 Must Own AI Exposure

19:46 Regulation and Unintended Effects

27:29 Geopolitics and Dual Use

29:10 Will IPO Volume Boom?

32:40 VC/PE = No Free Lunch

35:36 Retail Access Fee Stacking

39:14 Volatility Washing and Perps

49:09 Sentiment and Final Takeaways