Other People's Money with Max Wiethe

Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is rewarding near-term certainty in the tech sector and why he doesn’t like the "blow-off top" comparison between AI and the ARK implosion of 2021. He also gives his outlook for usage-based software vs. application software and explains the east coast vs west coast divide in assessing hyperscaler capex.

Follow Jeff Keller on X: https://x.com/jeffkeller1

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:



Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:13 Tech Sector Divergence

05:23 Cyber Infra Valuation Risks

08:09 Why Themes Beat Stock Picking

12:01 Valuation and Forecast Limits

17:35 Retail Crowding Warning

20:15 2021Parallels

23:33 Rising Rates and Funding the AI Buildout

27:28 Mag Seven Return Profile Shift

29:43 CapEx is Existential

35:17 Meta Breakdown

39:38 Investor Positioning Themes

41:34 Long Biased Long Short

43:55 What Would Break AI?

46:26 AI Echo Chamber Risk

49:06 Factor Awareness Extremes

51:55 Deleveraging July Playbook

56:58 Year End Watchlist

58:58 Anthropic IPO and SpaceX Effect

01:01:06 Conclusion

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/globalmacro

In this episode of "Other People's Money," host Max Wiethe welcomes back Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to unpack why macro risks are suddenly taking control of the stock market. Pies explains his tactical decision to downgrade stocks and commodities to neutral, shifting capital into cash as the market enters a historically weak seasonal window between August 15th and October 15th. The conversation dives deep into the Federal Reserve's true reaction function, the mispriced odds of a September rate hike, and the hidden political pressures driving the committee's choices. Furthermore, they discuss the critical data behind the AI build-out, including H200 GPU availability and the potential impact of major lab IPOs like Anthropic on the broader software sector.

Save $500/year on Caliban AI from 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters

Follow Warren Pies on X: https://x.com/WarrenPies

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:



Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:21 Why Macro Takes Over

03:19 Earnings Season Structure

05:43 Upcoming Macro Catalysts

08:24 Fed Hike Odds Mispriced

10:37 Political Pressure on Fed

15:29 Sponsor Break HFGM

17:45 Coin Flip Meeting Dynamics

19:42 Rates Curve and Term Premium

24:54 How to Position in September

26:53 Tech Breadth and AI Cracks

30:17 Lab ARR Reality Check

34:40 Tech Leadership Needed

38:17 Data Center ROI Debate

40:36 Election and Policy Risk

43:44 AI Issuance Scapegoats

47:35 Energy as Diversifier

51:48 Anthropic IPO Impact

55:01 Software Versus Semis

58:28 Pair Trades and Correlations

01:01:19 Fade Macro Risk Playbook

01:02:55 Conclusion

In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with High Yield Harry to examine the major trends in Wall Street compensation and careers, and why 2026 may be the year of the investment banker. Harry shares data from Buy Side Hub to detail buy-side compensation trends, career mobility bottlenecks, and why private equity professionals are resorting to non-recourse loans while waiting on delayed exits. The conversation breaks down the real threat of AI automation on financial modeling and grunt work, emphasizing why finance professionals must develop real-economy operating skills to survive. They also address the surge in private credit redemptions, retail investor panic, and whether buying small businesses is replacing the traditional mega-fund career path.

Check out Buyside Hub: https://www.buysidehub.com

Follow High Yield Harry on X: https://x.com/HighyieldHarry

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:



Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:45 Year of the Banker

03:38 Private Credit Redemptions

07:04 Retail Flows and Gating

10:18 Comp Trends and Hiring

13:17 Career Pyramid Reality

15:13 AI Reshapes Analyst Work

17:16 Big Firms vs Small Shops

20:27 Operators and Real Economy

23:56 Agents and Human Edge

26:39 Who Gets Displaced?

31:46 Rates and Longer Holds

37:42 Software Credit Time Bomb

41:16 Choosing Your Career Track

47:22 Top Jobs and Trading

51:56 Closing Takeaways

54:03 Banking Cycles and Layoffs

57:03 Conclusion

Andy Unanue, Founder and Managing Partner of AUA Private Equity Partners and former COO of Goya Foods breaks down the trillion-dollar opportunity in US food, beverage, and pet wellness family businesses. Andy shares how his experience in a family-run business shaped his firm's strategy of partnering with lower-middle-market, family-run companies across those sectors and explains how AUA unlocks 15% to 30% operational efficiencies. The discussion dives into major consumer trends, including the humanization of pets, the rise of ethnic food markets, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on snacking habits. Finally, Andy offers actionable advice on navigating generational wealth transfers, building positive workplace cultures, and transitioning family enterprises for long-term success.

Learn more about AUA Private Equity Partners: https://auaequity.com

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:



Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:51 Goya Roots to PE

02:48 Market Size Focus

04:21 Operational Playbook

07:26 Exit Paths for Families

09:34 PE Exits and Buyers

13:18 Leaving Upside for the Next Buyer

16:17 Macro Trends Tailwinds

21:22 Beverage Bets and Risk

28:29 Authenticity Wins Consumers

31:41 Marketing and Internet Shift

36:10 Deal Sourcing and Moats

39:08 Co-Manufacturing Advantage

41:14 Regional Brands and Add Ons

44:56 Manufacturing Renaissance

53:34 Wealth Transfer and Family Offices

58:58 AUA Future and Wrap Up

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar.

Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com

Follow Luke Gromen on X: https://x.com/LukeGromen

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:



Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:52 Bond Selloff Explained

04:54 Debt Spiral Mechanics

08:22 Global Defense Stimulus

09:58 Real Yields Reality Check

13:20 Fed Chair Fantasy

15:34 Sponsor Break Fundrise

16:57 AI Trade Meets China

20:52 Labor Data Warning

23:02 AI Backstop Coming

26:28 No Long Bond Floor

30:44 Gold Revaluation Debate

35:27 China Gold Buying Surge

36:31 Oil Reserves And Leverage

39:19 Pain Contest with The West

43:22 Inequality and Instability

47:18 Dollar Down Yield Trap

50:03 Buy the Dip

52:12 Gold Targets and Gradualism

54:50 Bitcoin Lags Tech Risk

58:47 Warsh Fed No Good Options

01:02:55 What Breaks First?

01:05:33 Bonds Are the Biggest Bubble