Other People's Money with Max Wiethe

James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples.

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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue

07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A

15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers

16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus

18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity

24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers

29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap

34:46 Why Interval Funds List

39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset

43:33 Permanent Capital Explained

50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity

54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity

01:04:17 Conclusion

Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.

Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

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X https://x.com/opmpod

JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer

02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields

05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate

07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks

08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility

11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom

14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes

17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break

18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending

20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag

23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup

25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?

26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention

31:20 Korea Silicon Boom

35:43 Europe Under Pressure

39:25 Middle East Outlook

43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices

48:34 China Oil Strategy

52:10 Big Calls Wrap

Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login

Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago.

Aurelion Research: https://aurelionresearch.com/

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

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X https://x.com/opmpod

JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K

05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates

09:24 Portfolio Positioning

12:28 Managing Miner Cycles

16:26 Plutus

18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer

20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories

33:23 Royalties as Exposure

36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies

42:48 Why Uranium Now

46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply

51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout

54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era

01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks

01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap

01:11:26 Closing and Where to Follow

Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric. He explains why that setup and the consistency of the mispricing in the sector brought them to launch a fund with the help of mining expert Darren McLean allowing them to take concentrated investments in the assets they think the market is overlooking while running lower net exposure. He also discusses how they think about hedging in the sector, why they take a bottom-up approach to portfolio construction, and how they approach short and long activism in the sector.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:28 Approach to Portfolio Construction

07:56 Fraud Report Origin

09:35 Block Models Explained

15:27 Why Juniors Are Distressed

21:19 Finding Mispriced Projects

25:12 Venture Like Investing

28:25 Promoters and Capital Raising

33:43 Sentiment and Cycles

38:28 M&A Wave Ahead

43:27 Trading Vol and Hedging

46:57 Long Activism Approach

50:23 Scaling the Strategy

55:10 When Alpha Shows Up

Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is rewarding near-term certainty in the tech sector and why he doesn’t like the "blow-off top" comparison between AI and the ARK implosion of 2021. He also gives his outlook for usage-based software vs. application software and explains the east coast vs west coast divide in assessing hyperscaler capex.

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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

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X https://x.com/opmpod

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:13 Tech Sector Divergence

05:23 Cyber Infra Valuation Risks

08:09 Why Themes Beat Stock Picking

12:01 Valuation and Forecast Limits

17:35 Retail Crowding Warning

20:15 2021Parallels

23:33 Rising Rates and Funding the AI Buildout

27:28 Mag Seven Return Profile Shift

29:43 CapEx is Existential

35:17 Meta Breakdown

39:38 Investor Positioning Themes

41:34 Long Biased Long Short

43:55 What Would Break AI?

46:26 AI Echo Chamber Risk

49:06 Factor Awareness Extremes

51:55 Deleveraging July Playbook

56:58 Year End Watchlist

58:58 Anthropic IPO and SpaceX Effect

01:01:06 Conclusion