The Logic of Risk

• LOR7: Probability as propensity

  In this episode, we move beyond the classical and frequentist definitions of probability to explore the propensity interpretation.We examine how Peirce and Popper viewed probability as an objective tendency of random phenomena.While this approach offers an interesting perspective, and it can be useful in fields like quantum mechanics, it also raises challenges, especially when dealing with single events. We also discuss historical bias and its impact on risk management and financial decision-making.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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• LOR6: Frequentism, its pros and its cons

  In this episode, we delve deeper into the frequentist definition of probability, showing how probabilities emerge from limiting relative frequencies. We discuss why this approach can be useful for mass random phenomena but falls short for single or rare events—especially in risk management contexts involving heavy-tailed risks. Through examples, we highlight the dangers of relying solely on historical data and underscore the need for more robust tools to capture the true nature of randomness.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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• LOR5: Moving toward Frequentism

  Welcome to the fifth episode of The Logic of Risk. After introducing the classical definition, we begin a review of the main schools of thought in probability. We’ll see that some are objectivist and others are subjectivist, plus a few that position themselves somewhere in between. Among the objectivist schools, we’ll introduce the most commonly used (and abused) one: the frequentist school.Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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• LOR4: The classical definition of probability

  In this episode, we provide an introduction to probability by exploring the classical definition, a concept rooted in the Renaissance and often used for pedagogical purposes. While historically significant, it has limitations in real-life applications.We'll also delve into key concepts in probability theory, including the sample space, event space, mutually exclusive events, and independence.Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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• LOR3: The possibility of harm, or an intro to probability

  After defining risk as the possibility of harm in Episode 1 and exploring the harm profile in Episode 2, we now turn our attention to the concept of possibility. To that end, we introduce probability as a way to assess possibility. This episode serves as an essential introduction to the various schools of thought on probability, which we will cover in the next episodes.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.

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