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inControl

Alberto Padoan
inControl
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  • inControl

    The fall of LTCM: Bachelier, Merton, and Black–Scholes ... when stochastic control met Wall Street

    2026-07-15 | 1 h
    Outline
    00:00 - Intro
    02:25 - Bachelier and the Théorie de la Spéculation
    03:05 - Stochastic processes, Brownian motion, and the heat equation
    09:45 - Poincaré's verdict, obscurity, and rediscovery
    13:50 - Robert C. Merton: from hot rods to MIT
    19:25 - Dynamic programming and Itô calculus
    24:35 - Merton's portfolio problem as stochastic optimal control
    31:10 - Options, dynamic hedging, and the Black–Scholes–Merton equation
    39:50 - LTCM: the dream team
    46:30 - August 1998: the crash
    49:00 - Fat tails and the ten-sigma defense
    51:40 - The ghosts of 2008 and echoes in the AI boom
    54:00 - Robustness embraced at last: Hansen and Sargent
    57:45 - Outro

    Links
    Bachelier's thesis, "Théorie de la Spéculation" (1900): https://www.numdam.org/item/10.24033/asens.476.pdf
    Courtault et al., "Louis Bachelier on the Centenary of Théorie de la Spéculation": https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00098
    Merton's Nobel autobiography: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1997/merton/biographical/
    Merton's MIT "Infinite History" interview: https://infinite.mit.edu/video/robert-c-merton-phd-%E2%80%9970/
    Mandelbrot, "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices": https://doi.org/10.1086/294632
    Merton, "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model": https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(71)90038-X
    Moehle & Boyd, "A Certainty Equivalent Merton Problem": https://doi.org/10.1109/LCSYS.2021.3111534
    Brigo & Mercurio, "Interest Rate Models: Theory and Practice": https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-34604-3
    Armstrong, Brigo & Hanzon, "Optimal Projection Filters with Information Geometry": https://doi.org/10.1007/s41884-023-00108-x
    Hu & Zhou, "Constrained Stochastic LQ Control with Random Coefficients, and Application to Portfolio Selection": https://doi.org/10.1137/S0363012904441969
    Black & Scholes, "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities": https://doi.org/10.1086/260062
    Merton, "Theory of Rational Option Pricing": https://doi.org/10.2307/3003143
    Merton, "Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns Are Discontinuous": https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90022-2
    Scholes' Nobel lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1997/scholes/lecture/
    Merton's Nobel lecture: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1997/merton/lecture/
    Markowitz, "Portfolio Selection": https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974
    Michael Lewis, "Liar's Poker": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar%27s_Poker
    Edwards, "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management": https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.13.2.189
    Lowenstein, "When Genius Failed": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Genius_Failed
    Taleb, "Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails": https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.10488
    Taleb & West, "Working with Convex Responses: Antifragility from Finance to Oncology": https://doi.org/10.3390/e25020343
    Taleb, "The Black Swan": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable
    Taleb, "Fooled by Randomness": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness
    Man Group, "The AI Bubble: Hidden Risks and Opportunities": https://www.man.com/insights/the-ai-bubble
    Sen. Warren's remarks at the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator: https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/warren-remarks-at-vanderbilt-policy-accelerator-event-highlighting-economic-and-financial-risks-of-potential-ai-crash
    Meng & Chen, "Artificial Intelligence and Systemic Risk": https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.03272
    Doyle, "Guaranteed Margins for LQG Regulators": https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1978.1101791
    Safonov & Athans, "Gain and Phase Margin for Multiloop LQG Regulators": https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1977.1101470
    Hansen & Sargent, "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty": https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.60
    Hansen & Sargent, "Wanting Robustness in Macroeconomics": http://www.tomsargent.com/research/wanting.pdf
    Support the show
    Podcast info
    Podcast website: https://www.incontrolpodcast.com/
    Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/5n84j85j
    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/4rwztj3c
    RSS: https://tinyurl.com/yc2fcv4y
    Youtube: https://tinyurl.com/bdbvhsj6
    Facebook: https://tinyurl.com/3z24yr43
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/IncontrolP
    Instagram: https://tinyurl.com/35cu4kr4

    Acknowledgments and sponsors
    This episode was supported by the National Centre of Competence in Research on «Dependable, ubiquitous automation» and the IFAC Activity fund. The podcast benefits from the help of an incredibly talented and passionate team. Special thanks to L. Seward, E. Cahard, F. Banis, F. Dörfler, J. Lygeros, ETH studio and mirrorlake . Music was composed by A New Element.
  • inControl

    ep45 - Peter Caines: from stochastic and adaptive control to mean field games, graphons, and beyond!

    2026-06-15 | 1 h 32 min.
    Outline
    00:00 - Intro
    02:10 - London in the 1960s
    12:40 - From Oxford to Imperial College: David Mayne and the discrete-time Riccati equation
    18:05 - The "global tour": Montenegro roads, hitch-hiking to Istanbul, and the San Francisco waterfront
    22:30 - Feedback and causality between stochastic processes
    31:15 - The system identification years
    40:50 - Model complexity, the bias–variance trade-off, and concentration inequalities
    52:05 - Adaptive control: living through a golden era
    1:00:30 - McGill, George Zames, and CIFAR's "institute without walls," and COCOLOG
    1:09:45 - Mean field games: the China connection, the cell-phone problem, and Nash Certainty Equivalence
    1:20:15 - The Lasry–Lions simultaneous discovery
    1:24:40 - From graphons to graphexons: sparse networks, Laplexions, and geometry
    1:31:00 - Linear Stochastic Systems, Popper, and falsifiability
    1:35:20 - Advice to young researchers
    1:38:00 - Outro
    Links
    Peter Caines' website: https://www.mcgill.ca/cim/caines
    Linear Stochastic Systems: https://epubs.siam.org/doi/book/10.1137/1.9781611974713
      On the discrete-time matrix Riccati equation of optimal control: https://doi.org/10.1080/00207177008931892
    Feedback between stationary stochastic processes: https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1975.1101008
    Prediction-error identification methods for stationary stochastic processes: https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1976.1101304
    Asymptotic normality of prediction-error estimators for approximate system models: https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC.1978.268066
    Discrete-time multivariable adaptive control (Axelby Award): https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1980.1102363
    Discrete-time stochastic adaptive control: https://doi.org/10.1137/0319052
    25 seminal control papers of the 20th century: https://books.google.ca/books/about/Control_Theory.html?id=eVhGAAAAYAAJ
    COCOLOG: A conditional observer and controller logic for finite machines: https://epubs.siam.org/doi/10.1137/S0363012992226636
    Hierarchical hybrid control systems: https://doi.org/10.1109/9.664153
    On the hybrid optimal control problem: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4303244
    Bode Lecture: https://ieeecss.org/presentation/bode-lecture/mean-field-stochastic-control
    The cell-phone problem - Large population stochastic wireless power control: https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC.2003.1272542
    Large-population stochastic dynamic games - McKean-Vlasov and the Nash Certainty Equivalence principle: https://projecteuclid.org/journals/communications-in-information-and-systems/volume-6/issue-3/Large-population-stochastic-dynamic-games--closed-loop-McKean-Vlasov/cis/1183728987.full
    Large-population cost-coupled LQG with nonuniform agents and decentralized ε-Nash equilibria: https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2007.904450
    Social optima in mean field LQG control: https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2012.2183439
    ε-Nash mean field games with major and minor agents: https://arxiv.org/abs/1209.5684
    Graphon mean field games and their equations: https://doi.org/10.1137/20M136373X
    Mean field games on large sparse network limits - Laplexion dynamics on graphexons: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240589632500388X
    Murray Wonham oral history: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IBZyRo0vDk
    Support the show
    Podcast info
    Podcast website: https://www.incontrolpodcast.com/
    Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/5n84j85j
    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/4rwztj3c
    RSS: https://tinyurl.com/yc2fcv4y
    Youtube: https://tinyurl.com/bdbvhsj6
    Facebook: https://tinyurl.com/3z24yr43
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/IncontrolP
    Instagram: https://tinyurl.com/35cu4kr4

    Acknowledgments and sponsors
    This episode was supported by the National Centre of Competence in Research on «Dependable, ubiquitous automation» and the IFAC Activity fund. The podcast benefits from the help of an incredibly talented and passionate team. Special thanks to L. Seward, E. Cahard, F. Banis, F. Dörfler, J. Lygeros, ETH studio and mirrorlake . Music was composed by A New Element.
  • inControl

    ep44 - Mario di Bernardo: From Circuits to Cells and Swarms — Control meets Complexity

    2026-05-15 | 1 h 29 min.
    Outline
    00:00 - Intro
    01:30 - Origin story: Naples, electrical engineering, and the fascination with chaos
    08:00 - What is chaos?
    15:00 - DC-DC converters and discontinuity-induced bifurcations
    22:00 - Piecewise-smooth dynamical systems
    26:55 - Complex networks, synchronization, and pinning control
    40:30- Synthetic biology: from gene regulatory networks to multicellular control
    58:00 - COVID-19: a network epidemic model for Italy
    1:02:00 - Multiscale control, statistical mechanics, and physics-informed control
    1:19:10 - State of the field and the IEEE CSS
    1:26:35 - Advice to young researchers
    1:29:00 - Outro

    Links
    Mario's website: https://sites.google.com/site/dibernardogroup/home
    Scuola Superiore Meridionale: https://www.ssm.unina.it/
    Chaos by James Gleick: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos:_Making_a_New_Science
    Control of chaos:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_of_chaos
    Erasmus programme: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erasmus_Programme
    An Adaptive Approach to the Control and Synchronization of Continuous-time Chaotic Systems: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127496000254
    Piecewise-smooth Dynamical Systems: Theory and Applications: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84628-708-4 
    Bifurcations in nonsmooth dynamical systems: https://doi.org/10.1137/050625060 Controllability of complex networks via pinning:
    https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.046103 
    Criteria for global pinning-controllability of complex networks: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2008.07.007
    Controllability of complex networks: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10011
    Controlling complex networks with complex nodes: https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-023-00566-3
    Analysis, design and implementation of a novel scheme for in-vivo control of synthetic gene regulatory networks: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2011.01.073
    In-vivo Real-time Control of Protein Expression from Endogenous and Synthetic Gene Networks: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003625
    A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5
    A Continuification-Based Control Solution for Large-Scale Shepherding: 
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.04791
    Shepherding control and herdability in complex multiagent systems: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.6.L032012
    Nonreciprocal field theory for decision-making in multi-agent control systems: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63071-4

    Support the show
    Podcast info
    Podcast website: https://www.incontrolpodcast.com/
    Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/5n84j85j
    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/4rwztj3c
    RSS: https://tinyurl.com/yc2fcv4y
    Youtube: https://tinyurl.com/bdbvhsj6
    Facebook: https://tinyurl.com/3z24yr43
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/IncontrolP
    Instagram: https://tinyurl.com/35cu4kr4

    Acknowledgments and sponsors
    This episode was supported by the National Centre of Competence in Research on «Dependable, ubiquitous automation» and the IFAC Activity fund. The podcast benefits from the help of an incredibly talented and passionate team. Special thanks to L. Seward, E. Cahard, F. Banis, F. Dörfler, J. Lygeros, ETH studio and mirrorlake . Music was composed by A New Element.
  • inControl

    ep43 - Steve Brunton: DMD, Koopman, SINDy, Eigensteve Channel, HydroGym, Optimization, and much more

    2026-04-15 | 1 h 14 min.
    Outline
    00:00 - Intro
    01:15 - Origin story: early path and the road to science 
    04:20 - On graphical visualization and aphantasia 
    08:08 - The interest in fluid dynamics 
    12:00 - Caltech, Jerry Marsden, and the move to the Pacific time zone 
    19:43 - Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and the Koopman operator 
    27:15 - On teaching and the Eigensteve channel 
    39:22 - SINDy: Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics 
    45:45 - Automatic knowledge creation and Explainable AI 
    54:31 - HydroGym: RL benchmarks for fluid flow control 
    1:01:37 - Optimization boot camp 
    1:05:31 - Collimator 
    1:13:18 - Outro
    Links
    Steve's website: https://www.eigensteve.com/
    Eigensteve channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/eigensteve
    Jerrold E. Marsden: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerrold_E._Marsden
    Aphantasia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aphantasia
    J. Nathan Kutz: https://amath.washington.edu/people/j-nathan-kutz
    Clarence W. Rowley: https://cwrowley.princeton.edu/
    DMD: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_mode_decomposition
    Koopman operator: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koopman_operator
    Dynamic Mode Decomposition book: https://epubs.siam.org/doi/book/10.1137/1.9781611974508
    On Dynamic Mode Decomposition paper: https://doi.org/10.3934/jcd.2014.1.391
    DMD with control: https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.6358
    Compressed sensing and DMD: https://doi.org/10.3934/jcd.2015002
    Modern Koopman Theory for Dynamical Systems: https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.12086
    Deep learning for universal linear embeddings of nonlinear dynamics: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07210-0
    Data-driven discovery of Koopman eigenfunctions for control: https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-2153/abf0f5
    PyDMD: https://github.com/PyDMD
    Discovering governing equations from data by sparse identification of nonlinear dynamical systems: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1517384113
    Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations:
    https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1602614
    SINDy for model predictive control in the low-data limit:
    https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2018.0335
    PySINDy: https://github.com/dynamicslab/pysindy
    SINDy with control: https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.13404
    SINDy review: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-control-030123-015238
    Data-Driven Science and Engineering: Machine Learning, Dynamical Systems, and Control: http://www.databookuw.com
    Explainable AI: Learning from the Learners: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.05525
    HydroGym: https://github.com/dynamicslab/hydrogym
    Support the show
    Podcast info
    Podcast website: https://www.incontrolpodcast.com/
    Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/5n84j85j
    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/4rwztj3c
    RSS: https://tinyurl.com/yc2fcv4y
    Youtube: https://tinyurl.com/bdbvhsj6
    Facebook: https://tinyurl.com/3z24yr43
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/IncontrolP
    Instagram: https://tinyurl.com/35cu4kr4

    Acknowledgments and sponsors
    This episode was supported by the National Centre of Competence in Research on «Dependable, ubiquitous automation» and the IFAC Activity fund. The podcast benefits from the help of an incredibly talented and passionate team. Special thanks to L. Seward, E. Cahard, F. Banis, F. Dörfler, J. Lygeros, ETH studio and mirrorlake . Music was composed by A New Element.
  • inControl

    ep42 - inControl guide to ... the Nyquist criterion

    2026-03-16 | 1 h 9 min.
    Outline
    00:00 – Intro
    04:43 – Life and background
    08:45 – Bell Labs
    13:42 – Inventing the negative feedback amplifier
    18:15 – Nyquist's landmark contributions
    20:43 – Regeneration theory
    27:10 – Frequency response
    32:03 – Cauchy’s argument principle
    36:05 – The Nyquist criterion
    41:37 – Why is it so hard?
    45:27 – Robustness, margins, and practical aspects
    56:41 – Beyond the Nyquist criterion
    1:04:25 – Pitfalls and common misunderstandings
    1:07:00 – Outro
    Links
    Brian Douglas's video: http://y2u.be/sof3meN96MA
    The Idea Factory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Idea_Factory
    Inventing the Negative Feedback Amplifier: https://doi.org/10.1109/MSPEC.1977.6501721
    Johnson–Nyquist noise:  https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRev.32.110
    Nyquist sampling theorem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyquist%E2%80%93Shannon_sampling_theorem
    Regeneration theory: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1932.tb02344.x
    Gain and phase margins: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bode_plot#Gain_margin_and_phase_margin
    Routh–Hurwitz criterion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Routh%E2%80%93Hurwitz_stability_criterion
    Åström’s lecture: https://archive.control.lth.se/media/Staff/KarlJohanAstrom/Lectures/ASMENyquistLecture2005.pdf
    Scale-Relative Graphs: https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2023.3234016
    Support the show
    Podcast info
    Podcast website: https://www.incontrolpodcast.com/
    Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/5n84j85j
    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/4rwztj3c
    RSS: https://tinyurl.com/yc2fcv4y
    Youtube: https://tinyurl.com/bdbvhsj6
    Facebook: https://tinyurl.com/3z24yr43
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/IncontrolP
    Instagram: https://tinyurl.com/35cu4kr4

    Acknowledgments and sponsors
    This episode was supported by the National Centre of Competence in Research on «Dependable, ubiquitous automation» and the IFAC Activity fund. The podcast benefits from the help of an incredibly talented and passionate team. Special thanks to L. Seward, E. Cahard, F. Banis, F. Dörfler, J. Lygeros, ETH studio and mirrorlake . Music was composed by A New Element.
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